A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
